# Demographic projection provenance

- **Primary report:** Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections for India and States 2011–2036, National Commission on Population, Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, July 2020.
- **Table used:** Projected Total Population by Sex as on 1 March, 2011–2036: India, States and Union Territories.
- **Accessible copy used for transcription:** National Health Profile 2023, Demographic Indicators, pp. 16–17. The table itself identifies the Technical Group report as its source.
- **Retrieved:** 2026-08-19.
- **URL:** https://simplifiedupsc.in/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Final_Central-Bureau-of-Health-Intelligene-July-2024.pdf
- **Raw file:** `raw/nhp-2023-demographic-tables.pdf`
- **SHA-256:** `1fb5ab46b9fd10c4ade875bd54d5f0fa4a2f798026b11825db05df21dfcf3463`
- **Official report landing page:** https://www.mohfw.gov.in/?q=reports-0

## Method and limitations

`demographic-projection.csv` contains the 2031 and 2036 person totals transcribed from the table. Post-2011 administrative changes are harmonized for comparison: Ladakh is combined with Jammu and Kashmir, and Dadra and Nagar Haveli is combined with Daman and Diu. Andhra Pradesh and Telangana use their post-bifurcation Lok Sabha allocations (25 and 17 seats); the pre-bifurcation 42-seat Andhra Pradesh entry is therefore split. The current-seat column sums to 543.

The 2041 column is **not an official projection**. It is a mechanical scenario: `population_2041 = population_2036 + (population_2036 - population_2031)`. The accompanying seat allocation keeps 543 seats and applies the largest-remainder method to projected population shares. It is intended to show the direction and scale of a reapportionment thought experiment, not to predict a future delimitation commission.

The SVG displays only units with a scenario shift of at least two seats, to keep the figure readable. The complete results remain in `demographic-projection-results.csv`.