Emerging Technologies

Overview

The technologies that will define the next three decades are not yet fully mature. Quantum computers that can break current encryption, artificial intelligence systems that outperform human doctors, hydrogen economies that replace fossil fuels, and supply chains for minerals that power every battery — these are not science fiction but active policy battlegrounds. For India, the stakes are existential: if it misses these transitions, it risks permanent middle-income status; if it captures them, it could leapfrog into the top tier of global powers.

India's approach has been characterized by ambitious mission-mode programs — the National Quantum Mission, the IndiaAI Mission, the National Hydrogen Mission — backed by significant but still modest funding compared to the US, China, and the EU. The challenge is not merely scientific or financial; it is institutional. India's research ecosystem, hobbled by bureaucratic delays, talent flight, and weak industry-academia links, must transform if these missions are to succeed. This page examines each emerging technology domain, India's current position, and the policy choices that will determine its trajectory.

Quantum Computing

Quantum computing exploits the principles of superposition and entanglement to perform calculations impossible for classical computers. While still in its infancy, quantum computing threatens current cryptographic systems and promises breakthroughs in drug discovery, materials science, and optimization. Recognizing its strategic importance, India launched the National Quantum Mission (NQM) in 2023 with an allocation of ₹6,000 crore over eight years.

• National Quantum Mission: The NQM aims to develop intermediate-scale quantum computers (50–1000 physical qubits) in India, establish four thematic hubs (quantum computing, quantum communication, quantum sensing and metrology, quantum materials and devices), and train a quantum workforce. The mission is led by the Department of Science and Technology (DST) and involves IISc, IITs, and research laboratories.
• Institutional efforts: IISc Bengaluru established the Centre for Nano Science and Engineering (CeNSE) and the Supercomputer Education and Research Centre (SERC) as quantum research hubs. TIFR's Centre for Excellence in Basic Sciences conducts quantum information research. DRDO's Centre for Artificial Intelligence and Robotics (CAIR) works on quantum cryptography for secure military communications.
• Industry and startups: Indian quantum startups (QpiAI, BosonQ Psi, QuCrew) are emerging, but the ecosystem is nascent compared to the US and China. Major Indian IT companies (TCS, Infosys) have established quantum research labs primarily focused on algorithms and consulting rather than hardware.
• Challenges: India lacks the fabrication infrastructure for quantum processors (superconducting qubits, trapped ions, photonic chips). Cryogenic equipment, lasers, and specialized materials are imported. The talent pipeline is thin — only a handful of Indian universities offer dedicated quantum computing programs. Without domestic hardware capability, India risks becoming a consumer of foreign quantum technology rather than a producer.

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence is the most consequential emerging technology of the decade, with applications ranging from healthcare diagnostics to autonomous weapons. India's AI ecosystem — the third largest in the world by number of AI companies — is vibrant but shallow: strong in services and analytics, weak in foundational research and semiconductor hardware.

• IndiaAI Mission: Approved in 2024 with an outlay of ₹10,372 crore, the IndiaAI Mission aims to build compute infrastructure (including a 10,000 GPU sovereign AI cluster), develop indigenous large language models (LLMs), create datasets, and foster AI startups. The mission is overseen by the Digital India Corporation under the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY).
• Compute infrastructure: India's lack of domestic GPU/cloud capacity forces AI researchers to rely on foreign providers (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud). The sovereign AI cluster is intended to reduce this dependence, though critics question whether government-managed infrastructure can match the efficiency of private clouds.
• Regulation: India has not enacted comprehensive AI legislation. The Digital Personal Data Protection Act, 2023, governs data used in AI systems, and the MeitY has issued advisories requiring explicit government permission for "unreliable" AI models. The absence of a dedicated AI regulatory framework creates uncertainty for developers and risks either over-regulation (stifling innovation) or under-regulation (enabling harm).
• Social challenges: AI deployment in India raises acute concerns about bias (algorithms trained on skewed datasets reinforcing caste and gender discrimination), job displacement (BPO and IT services vulnerable to automation), and surveillance (facial recognition systems deployed without legal safeguards). The National Strategy for AI (NITI Aayog, 2018) acknowledged these risks but implementation has lagged.

5G, 6G, and Telecommunications

Telecommunications infrastructure is the backbone of the digital economy. India's 5G rollout, launched in 2022, is among the fastest globally, but the industry is financially stressed, and India's absence from global standards-setting bodies limits its influence over 6G development.

• 5G rollout: Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel launched 5G services in October 2022. By 2024, India had over 100 million 5G subscribers and coverage in most urban centres. Jio developed its own 5G stack (in partnership with Samsung and Nokia), while Airtel relies on Ericsson and Nokia. The government provided spectrum at relatively low cost compared to earlier auctions, but the industry remains burdened by adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues and intense price competition.
• Domestic manufacturing: The government has pushed for domestic 5G equipment manufacturing under the PLI scheme, but Indian companies (Tejas Networks, STL) primarily produce passive components and optical fibre rather than core 5G base stations and chipsets. Dependence on foreign vendors (Ericsson, Nokia, Samsung, Huawei is excluded from government networks) for core network equipment remains high.
• 6G research: India established the Bharat 6G Alliance in 2023 and allocated funding for 6G R&D through the Technology Innovation Hub on 6G at IIT Madras. However, global 6G standards will be set by 3GPP and the ITU, where Indian representation is limited. Without significant patent contributions, India risks paying royalties for 6G technology it did not help create — a repeat of the 2G–4G era.
• Satellite communications: Jio and Airtel have partnered with foreign satellite operators (SES, OneWeb) to provide satellite broadband, particularly in rural and remote areas. The 2023 Telecommunications Act reformed spectrum allocation for satellite services, but terrestrial telecom operators have resisted spectrum sharing.

Green Hydrogen

Hydrogen is touted as a "silver bullet" for decarbonizing sectors that are difficult to electrify: steel, cement, chemicals, shipping, and aviation. India's National Hydrogen Mission, launched in 2023, aims to make India a global hub for green hydrogen production — hydrogen produced by splitting water using renewable electricity.

• National Hydrogen Mission: The mission targets 5 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of green hydrogen production by 2030, with an eventual goal of becoming a major exporter to Europe and Japan. The government has allocated ₹19,744 crore for incentives, including subsidies for electrolyser manufacturing and renewable-hybrid projects.
• Advantages: India's abundant solar and wind resources, combined with falling electrolyser costs, make it potentially one of the cheapest producers of green hydrogen globally. Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Andhra Pradesh are identified as initial hub states due to their renewable energy potential and port access.
• Challenges: Green hydrogen is currently 3–4 times more expensive than grey hydrogen (produced from natural gas). Electrolyser technology is dominated by European and Chinese companies; India has negligible domestic manufacturing. Transport and storage of hydrogen require specialized infrastructure (pipelines, high-pressure tanks, ammonia conversion), none of which exists at scale. Water consumption for electrolysis is also a concern in water-stressed regions.
• Industrial applications: Reliance Industries, Adani Group, and NTPC have announced green hydrogen projects. The steel sector (JSW, Tata Steel) is piloting hydrogen-based direct reduction to replace coal. The fertiliser industry, a major hydrogen consumer, is mandated to use 20% green hydrogen by 2030.

Critical Minerals and Rare Earths

The global energy transition and digitalization depend on minerals that are geographically concentrated, environmentally destructive to extract, and subject to intense geopolitical competition. India's critical minerals strategy is a response to Chinese dominance in rare earth processing and the realization that without secure mineral supply chains, India's EV, battery, and renewable energy targets are unachievable.

• Critical Minerals List: The Ministry of Mines released India's first critical minerals list in 2023, identifying 30 minerals including lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, rare earth elements (REEs), and vanadium. These are essential for batteries, electric motors, semiconductors, and permanent magnets.
• Domestic reserves: India has significant REE deposits in Odisha (beach sands), Kerala, and Tamil Nadu, but these are underexplored and underdeveloped. Lithium reserves were discovered in Jammu & Kashmir (Reasi district) in 2023 and in Rajasthan, but commercial extraction is years away. India has no operational cobalt or nickel mines.
• Processing gap: China controls 60% of global rare earth mining and 90% of processing. India extracts some REEs but exports them as raw concentrates, lacking the refining capacity to produce high-purity oxides and metals. The India Rare Earths Limited (IREL), a PSU, operates processing plants but at limited scale.
• International partnerships: India has signed critical minerals agreements with Australia (lithium, cobalt), Argentina (lithium), and Chile (lithium). The Minerals Security Partnership (MSP), a US-led initiative, includes India as a member to diversify supply chains away from China. However, these agreements are exploratory; actual supply security will require years of investment in mining and refining infrastructure.
• Recycling: India is beginning to develop battery recycling capacity (Lohum, Attero Recycling) to recover lithium, cobalt, and nickel from end-of-life electronics and EV batteries. Recycling could eventually reduce import dependence, but the sector is currently small and unregulated.

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